{"id":39045,"date":"2019-11-13T08:01:25","date_gmt":"2019-11-13T07:01:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/da-li-demografska-kriva-utice-na-radnu-snagu\/"},"modified":"2022-08-30T12:46:11","modified_gmt":"2022-08-30T10:46:11","slug":"da-li-demografska-kriva-utice-na-radnu-snagu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/bs\/da-li-demografska-kriva-utice-na-radnu-snagu\/","title":{"rendered":"Da li demografska kriva uti\u010de na radnu snagu?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jedan od najozbiljnijih, ali ne toliko popularnih problema dana\u0161njice je starenje stanovni\u0161tva. Unutar Evropske unije bilje\u017ee se problemati\u010dni pokazatelji u pogledu nataliteta, \u0161to postavlja pitanje budu\u0107nosti radne snage ne samo u na\u0161oj zemlji. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iako se Evropska unija \u0161iri i uklju\u010duje nove dr\u017eave \u010dlanice, a bogatstvo njenih gra\u0111ana raste, ona se mora boriti s ovim problemom. Ra\u0111a se sve manje djece, \u0161to ugro\u017eava tr\u017ei\u0161te rada, zdravstveni i penzioni sistem. Demografski izvje\u0161taji upozoravaju da stanovni\u0161tvo Evrope polako izumire. Istovremeno, istra\u017eivanja pokazuju da bi Evropljani po\u017eeljeli vi\u0161e potomstva. Me\u0111utim, samo pod uslovom da \u0107e za to biti ekonomski dovoljni.<\/p>\n\n

Ho\u0107emo li svjedo\u010diti demografskoj krizi?<\/h2>\n\n

Velika je pretpostavka da \u0107emo u narednim decenijama svjedo\u010diti demografskoj krizi bez presedana. Kao rezultat niske stope nataliteta, odlaska mladih u inostranstvo, produ\u017eenog \u017eivotnog vijeka i zatvorenosti prema strancima, mogli bismo postati jedno od najstarijih dru\u0161tava u Evropskoj uniji. Starenje stanovni\u0161tva je naravno trend koji poga\u0111a sve razvijene zemlje svijeta, pa nije samo na\u0161 problem. \u0160to se ti\u010de demografskih prognoza, Zapadna i Sjeverna Evropa su znatno bolje u odnosu na zemlje Ju\u017ene i Isto\u010dne Evrope. Rje\u0161enje demografske krize stoga treba uklju\u010diti mjere u oblasti ekonomije, zapo\u0161ljavanja i porodice. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
PROCJENA RAZVOJA STANOVNI\u0160TVA<\/strong> (izvor: Eurostat<\/a> )<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

Dok \u0107e zemlje poput Norve\u0161ke, Danske i Irske rasti u populaciji, Finska \u0107e zadr\u017eati otprilike stabilnu populaciju. Nakon 2030. godine, Slova\u010dka se suo\u010dava sa postepenim izumiranjem i istovremeno br\u017eim starenjem stanovni\u0161tva nego zemlje zapadne i sjeverne Evrope. Danas smo i dalje me\u0111u najmla\u0111im evropskim nacijama, ali starimo br\u017ee od drugih. Do 2060. godine trebali bismo biti me\u0111u najstarijim nacijama u Evropi. To zna\u010di da \u0107e biti mnogo te\u017ee odr\u017eati zdravstveni i penzioni sistem finansiranim. Starenje se ne\u0107e odvijati postepeno, ve\u0107 vrlo dinami\u010dno. Kao rezultat toga, postat \u0107emo jedna od najbr\u017ee starijih populacija u Evropi.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"
INDEKS STARIJE ZAVISNOSTI<\/strong> (izvor: Eurostat<\/a> )<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

Efekat niske stope nataliteta postepeno \u0107e poja\u010dati starenje stanovni\u0161tva<\/h2>\n\n

Demografska kretanja u evropskim zemljama suvi\u0161e su razli\u010dita da bi se omogu\u0107ilo jedno predvi\u0111anje rasta produktivnosti \u0161irom Evrope. Ne postoji zemlja koja je samo na pozitivnoj strani, ali se vide neke procjene trenda. Demografski “pobjednici” su sjeverne zemlje, ali i Njema\u010dka, gdje \u0107e se u narednoj deceniji pove\u0107ati udio 30-49-godi\u0161njaka. O\u010dekuje se da \u0107e se sli\u010dan trend pojaviti u Danskoj, Belgiji, Holandiji i Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu. Pove\u0107anje produktivnosti rada u Srednjoj i Isto\u010dnoj Evropi moglo bi se zavr\u0161iti i zbog smanjenja broja zaposlenih u dobi od 30-49 godina zbog njihove stalne migracije na Zapad. Osjetit \u0107e to uglavnom \u010ce\u0161ka i Ma\u0111arska. Slova\u010dka bi trebala biti manje pogo\u0111ena, ali \u0107e se i u narednoj deceniji osjetiti pad broja radnika. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
RAST\/PAD UDJELA RADNIKA UZRASTA<\/strong> 30-49 (izvor: Eulerhermes<\/a> )<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

Razloga za nepovoljne prognoze mo\u017ee biti vi\u0161e. Stopa nataliteta u Slova\u010dkoj je ni\u017ea nego u zemljama zapadne i sjeverne Evrope. \u017dene su vi\u0161e posve\u0107ene svojoj karijeri, sve manje sklapa se brakova i raste broj razvoda. Ovome je potrebno dodati nove obrasce su\u017eivota, kojima savjetujemo samohrane roditelje ili homoseksualne zajednice. Mnogi mladi ljudi odlaze u bogatije zemlje radi boljeg obrazovanja i mogu\u0107nosti za karijeru. Ostaje paradoks da smo prili\u010dno zatvoreni za imigrante iz drugih zemalja i vjerovatno im nismo posebno privla\u010dni. Dakle, nismo jedina dr\u017eava koja se bori, ili bori\u0107e se sa padom ljudi.<\/p>\n\n

\u201ePrirodno odsustvo je mnogo \u010de\u0161\u0107e u Evropi nego u SAD-u zbog starije populacije, ni\u017ee stope nataliteta i manjeg broja \u017eena u reproduktivnoj dobi. Prirodni odliv je glavni politi\u010dki problem jer naru\u0161ava demografsku otpornost regiona, smanjuju\u0107i njegovu ekonomsku odr\u017eivost i konkurentnost.” <\/p>

– demograf Dudley Poston sa kolegama sa Texas A&M univerziteta <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

Migracija kao rje\u0161enje problema<\/h2>\n\n

Ako stanovni\u0161tvo stari, bi\u0107e manje radnih aktivnosti i vi\u0161e penzionera. Mo\u017ee do\u0107i i do situacije da \u0107e stanovni\u0161tvo rasti, ali ekonomski nivo ne\u0107e stvoriti uslove za zadovoljavaju\u0107i \u017eivot. Me\u0111utim, strani radnici bi mogli pomo\u0107i ekonomskom rastu. Oni su fleksibilni i idu u one sektore zanimanja u kojima je najve\u0107i nedostatak radne snage. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
NAJIDEALNIJI GRAFIKON DEMOGRAFSKE KRIVLJE<\/strong> (izvor: Ujedinjene nacije<\/a> )<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

“Zemlje Evropske unije koje podr\u017eavaju porodi\u010dnu politiku i uskla\u0111uju posao i porodi\u010dni \u017eivot imaju ve\u0107i natalitet. Imigracija daje zna\u010dajan doprinos obnovi i ja\u010danju aktivnog stanovni\u0161tva na razli\u010ditim nivoima stru\u010dnosti.”<\/p>

– sociolog Fran\u00e7ois H\u00e9ran <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

Sa na\u0161e ta\u010dke gledi\u0161ta, otvaranje granica prema tre\u0107im zemljama jedan je od na\u010dina da se izbjegne demografska kriza. Ukoliko se stopa nataliteta, migracija ili mortaliteta su\u0161tinski ne pove\u0107a, pritisak na penzioni sistem \u0107e se brzo pove\u0107ati. Migracije mogu biti klju\u010dni uslov za izbjegavanje starenja stanovni\u0161tva i opadanja radne snage. Ne bi bilo opasnosti od preoptere\u0107enja penzionih sistema u gotovo svim zemljama Evropske unije. Vide\u0107emo pozitivne efekte tek kada kompanija bude u stanju da upravlja i konsoliduje migraciju.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jedan od najozbiljnijih, ali ne toliko popularnih problema dana\u0161njice je starenje stanovni\u0161tva. Unutar Evropske unije bilje\u017ee se problemati\u010dni pokazatelji u pogledu nataliteta, \u0161to postavlja pitanje budu\u0107nosti radne snage ne samo u na\u0161oj zemlji.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":33916,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[429,431,435],"tags":[],"acf":{"facebookpost":"","popis_socialneho_obrazku":""},"yoast_head":"\nDa li demografska kriva uti\u010de na radnu snagu? - Atena blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dru\u0161tveni uticaji o\u010dekivanog razvoja starosne strukture stanovni\u0161tva bi\u0107e ozbiljni u narednim decenijama. 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