{"id":42222,"date":"2020-05-14T13:22:59","date_gmt":"2020-05-14T11:22:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/da-li-je-ekonomska-kriza-jos-jedan-crni-labud\/"},"modified":"2022-08-30T12:50:42","modified_gmt":"2022-08-30T10:50:42","slug":"da-li-je-ekonomska-kriza-jos-jedan-crni-labud","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/bs\/da-li-je-ekonomska-kriza-jos-jedan-crni-labud\/","title":{"rendered":"Da li je ekonomska kriza jo\u0161 jedan crni labud?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Neo\u010dekivan doga\u0111aj, ali sa dramati\u010dnim uticajem na svet. Ponekad uleti i odleti, ali za sobom ostavlja trag. Crni labud se vratio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ni\u0161ta druga\u010dije nije bilo ni 2008. godine, kada je te\u0161ko pogodio globalni finansijski sistem. Ili 2011. godine, kada je Evropu potresla du\u017eni\u010dka kriza. Svijet se jo\u0161 nije oporavio od ovih posljedica krize od prije jedne decenije, o \u010demu svjedo\u010de nulte kamatne stope i nastavak kvantitativnog popu\u0161tanja. Dok posljedice prvobitnog sistemskog uni\u0161tenja jo\u0161 traju, crni labud je ponovo preletio svijet. Ovaj put sa jo\u0161 ve\u0107im potencijalnim posljedicama.<\/p>\n\n

Zemlje se bore protiv krize<\/h2>\n\n

Epidemiolo\u0161ke ili ekonomske krize imaju barem jednu zajedni\u010dku stvar: mogu se zaustaviti. Mnoge zemlje Azije pokazale su kako je mogu\u0107e intervenirati protiv \u0161irenja malignog virusa i gotovo ga potpuno eliminirati. To je te\u0161ka bitka i menad\u017eerski i politi\u010dki, ali je mogu\u0107a.<\/p>\n\n

Sve dok se preduzmu brzi i efikasni koraci i zaustavi \u0161irenje virusa u prvoj fazi, kao na primjer u Singapuru, ekonomske posljedice su minimalne. Me\u0111utim, ako infekcija preraste u epidemiju, koraci su mnogo slo\u017eeniji i bolniji. Ju\u017ena Koreja je tako\u0111er pokazala da se takvom situacijom mo\u017ee upravljati. <\/p>\n\n

Evropski neuspeh<\/h2>\n\n

Evropa je zna\u010dajno zaostala u prevenciji i pripremi planova, u testiranju potencijalno zara\u017eenih, u prikupljanju i evaluaciji podataka. Ali i u pristupu pojedinaca \u0161irenju epidemije. Za mnoge nije iznena\u0111enje da je broj zara\u017eenih rastao za hiljade dnevno u mnogim evropskim zemljama. Istovremeno, potvr\u0111ena je bojazan da \u0107e oni prema\u0161iti nivo iz Kine. <\/p>\n\n

Pad ekonomske proizvodnje u oblasti Vuhana pokazao je koliko karantena mo\u017ee biti mo\u0107na za ekonomiju jedne zemlje. Kolaps kineske ekonomije u prvom kvartalu bio je najve\u0107i od po\u010detka mjerenja. To je tako\u0111er izazvalo veliku zabrinutost za zdravlje europske ekonomije uz trenutni rast epidemije. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
REAKCIJA NA REALNE PLATE U EVROPI NAKON PANDEMIJE (izvor: FORBES<\/a> )<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

Situacija u Evropi se su\u0161tinski razlikuje od situacije u Aziji. Na azijskoj rang listi vrijednosti porodica je bila na prvoj, a dr\u017eava ispod nje, u Evropi je to bio sam pojedinac. Pokazalo se da je ne samo nespremnost Evrope za epidemiju, ve\u0107 posebno zapadni individualizam najve\u0107a prijetnja \u0161irenju epidemije na starom kontinentu.<\/p>\n\n

U Velikoj Britaniji do \u010detvrtine stanovni\u0161tva odbilo je promijeniti svoje navike zbog koronavirusa. Tako\u0111e, na osnovu njihovog stava, britanska vlada nije preduzela nikakve drasti\u010dne mere, poput otkazivanja masovnih doga\u0111aja ili zatvaranja \u0161kola. <\/p>\n\n

Kraj sada\u0161nje ere globalizacije? <\/h2>\n\n

Koronavirus je uzrokovao pad realnih stopa za 1,5% u odnosu na o\u010dekivani razvoj bez pandemije. Posljedica mnogih evropskih pandemija bio je i pad trgovine. Dok su ja\u010di trgovinski odnosi prije krize donosili vi\u0161i \u017eivotni standard. Svaki strah za zdravlje dovodio je do depresije. Sa zavr\u0161etkom \u0161panske gripe do\u0161ao je kraj prve ere industrijske globalizacije, koja je ve\u0107 bila prigu\u0161ena posljedicama Prvog svjetskog rata. Korona kriza tako mo\u017ee blokirati lanac nabavke iz Kine, koji je izgra\u0111en u posljednje dvije decenije. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
ODGOVOR EVROPSKE KAMATNE STOPE NAKON PANDEMIJE (izvor: FORBES<\/a> )<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

Mo\u017eemo re\u0107i da \u0107e pandemije povisiti plate, ali razo\u010darati stvarne povrate. Za razliku od drugih katastrofa, kao \u0161to su rat ili prirodne katastrofe, pandemije ne rezultiraju porastom potra\u017enje za kapitalom, \u0161to rezultira produ\u017eenim periodom skromnih realnih stopa. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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