{"id":28143,"date":"2019-11-13T08:01:25","date_gmt":"2019-11-13T07:01:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/ma-demograficka-krivka-vliv-na-pracovni-silu\/"},"modified":"2022-08-26T11:50:42","modified_gmt":"2022-08-26T09:50:42","slug":"ma-demograficka-krivka-vliv-na-pracovni-silu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/cs\/ma-demograficka-krivka-vliv-na-pracovni-silu\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00e1 demografick\u00e1 k\u0159ivka vliv na pracovn\u00ed s\u00edlu?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jedn\u00edm z nejz\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edch, ale ne p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 popul\u00e1rn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f sou\u010dasnosti je st\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace. V r\u00e1mci Evropsk\u00e9 unie existuj\u00ed problematick\u00e9 ukazatele t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se porodnosti, co\u017e vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 \u00favahy o budoucnosti pracovn\u00ed s\u00edly, a to nejen v na\u0161\u00ed zemi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee se Evropsk\u00e1 unie roz\u0161i\u0159uje o nov\u00e9 \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a bohatstv\u00ed jej\u00edch ob\u010dan\u016f roste, pot\u00fdk\u00e1 se s t\u00edmto probl\u00e9mem. St\u00e1le men\u0161\u00ed po\u010det narozen\u00fdch d\u011bt\u00ed ohro\u017euje trh pr\u00e1ce, syst\u00e9m zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de a d\u016fchodov\u00fd syst\u00e9m. Demografick\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy varuj\u00ed, \u017ee evropsk\u00e1 populace pomalu vym\u00edr\u00e1. Pr\u016fzkumy z\u00e1rove\u0148 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee Evropan\u00e9 by uv\u00edtali v\u00edce potomk\u016f. Ov\u0161em pouze za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee k tomu budou ekonomicky dosta\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n

Do\u010dk\u00e1me se demografick\u00e9 krize?<\/h2>\n\n

D\u00e1 se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch desetilet\u00edch budeme sv\u011bdky neb\u00fdval\u00e9 demografick\u00e9 krize. V d\u016fsledku n\u00edzk\u00e9 porodnosti, st\u011bhov\u00e1n\u00ed mlad\u00fdch lid\u00ed do zahrani\u010d\u00ed, prodlu\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed se pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 d\u00e9lky \u017eivota a uzav\u0159enosti v\u016f\u010di cizinc\u016fm se m\u016f\u017eeme st\u00e1t jednou z nejv\u00edce st\u00e1rnouc\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed v Evropsk\u00e9 unii. St\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b trend, kter\u00fd se t\u00fdk\u00e1 v\u0161ech vysp\u011bl\u00fdch zem\u00ed sv\u011bta, tak\u017ee to nen\u00ed jen n\u00e1\u0161 probl\u00e9m. Z hlediska demografick\u00fdch progn\u00f3z je na tom z\u00e1padn\u00ed a severn\u00ed Evropa v\u00fdrazn\u011b l\u00e9pe ne\u017e ji\u017en\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropa. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed demografick\u00e9 krize by proto m\u011blo zahrnovat opat\u0159en\u00ed v oblasti hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed, zam\u011bstnanosti a rodiny. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
P\u0158EDPOKL\u00c1DAN\u00dd R\u016eST OBYVATEL<\/strong> (zdroj: Eurostat<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

Zat\u00edmco po\u010det obyvatel zem\u00ed jako Norsko, D\u00e1nsko a Irsko poroste, po\u010det obyvatel Finska z\u016fstane p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b stejn\u00fd. Po roce 2030 \u010dek\u00e1 Slovensko postupn\u00e9 vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed a z\u00e1rove\u0148 prud\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace ne\u017e zem\u011b z\u00e1padn\u00ed a severn\u00ed Evropy. Dnes st\u00e1le pat\u0159\u00edme mezi nejmlad\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 n\u00e1rody, ale st\u00e1rneme rychleji ne\u017e ostatn\u00ed. Ji\u017e v roce 2060 bychom m\u011bli b\u00fdt jedn\u00edm z nejv\u00edce st\u00e1rnouc\u00edch n\u00e1rod\u016f v Evrop\u011b. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee bude mnohem obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed udr\u017eet financov\u00e1n\u00ed zdravotn\u00edho a d\u016fchodov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu. St\u00e1rnut\u00ed tedy nebude postupn\u00e9, ale velmi dynamick\u00e9. V d\u016fsledku toho se staneme jednou z nejrychleji st\u00e1rnouc\u00edch populac\u00ed v Evrop\u011b.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"
INDEX STAROSTI<\/strong> (zdroj: Eurostat<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

Vliv n\u00edzk\u00e9 porodnosti bude postupn\u011b posilovat st\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace.<\/h2>\n\n

Demografick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj v evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 r\u016fznorod\u00fd na to, aby bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bt r\u016fst produktivity v cel\u00e9 Evrop\u011b. Neexistuje zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 by se pohybovala pouze v kladn\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch, ale n\u011bkter\u00e9 odhady trendu jsou patrn\u00e9. Demografick\u00fdmi „v\u00edt\u011bzi“ jsou severn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b, ale tak\u00e9 N\u011bmecko, kde se v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm desetilet\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl osob ve v\u011bku 30-49 let. Podobn\u00fd trend se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 i v D\u00e1nsku, Belgii, Nizozemsku a Spojen\u00e9m kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed. R\u016fst produktivity pr\u00e1ce ve st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b m\u016f\u017ee skon\u010dit tak\u00e9 v d\u016fsledku poklesu po\u010dtu pracovn\u00edk\u016f ve v\u011bku 30-49 let v d\u016fsledku jejich pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed migrace na Z\u00e1pad. \u010cesk\u00e1 republika a Ma\u010farsko to poc\u00edt\u00ed obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b. Slovensko by m\u011blo b\u00fdt posti\u017eeno m\u00e9n\u011b, ale v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm desetilet\u00ed dojde ke stejn\u00e9mu \u00fabytku pracovn\u00edk\u016f. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
R\u016fst\/pokles pod\u00edlu pracuj\u00edc\u00edch ve v\u011bku 30-49 let<\/strong> (zdroj: Eulerhermes<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

D\u016fvod\u016f pro nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt n\u011bkolik. Porodnost na Slovensku je ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v zem\u00edch z\u00e1padn\u00ed a severn\u00ed Evropy. \u017deny se v\u00edce v\u011bnuj\u00ed kari\u00e9\u0159e, uzav\u00edraj\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b man\u017eelstv\u00ed a roste po\u010det rozvod\u016f. K tomu je t\u0159eba p\u0159ipo\u010d\u00edtat nov\u00e9 modely sou\u017eit\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zahrnuj\u00ed osam\u011bl\u00e9 rodi\u010de nebo homosexu\u00e1ln\u00ed svazky. Mnoho mlad\u00fdch lid\u00ed odch\u00e1z\u00ed do bohat\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed za lep\u0161\u00edm vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00edm a kari\u00e9rou. Paradoxem z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee jsme v\u016f\u010di p\u0159ist\u011bhovalc\u016fm z jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e uzav\u0159en\u00ed a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pro n\u011b nejsme p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 atraktivn\u00ed. Nejsme tedy jedin\u00fdm st\u00e1tem, kter\u00fd se pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s probl\u00e9my nebo. se bude pot\u00fdkat se ztr\u00e1tou lid\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n

„P\u0159irozen\u00e9 ch\u0159adnut\u00ed je v Evrop\u011b mnohem \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v USA, a to kv\u016fli star\u0161\u00ed populaci, ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed porodnosti a men\u0161\u00edmu po\u010dtu \u017een v plodn\u00e9m v\u011bku. P\u0159irozen\u00fd \u00fabytek obyvatelstva je velk\u00fdm politick\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem, proto\u017ee zbavuje region jeho demografick\u00e9 odolnosti a sni\u017euje jeho hospod\u00e1\u0159skou \u017eivotaschopnost a konkurenceschopnost.“ <\/p>

– demograf Dudley Poston a jeho kolegov\u00e9 z Texask\u00e9 univerzity A&M. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

Migrace jako \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed probl\u00e9mu<\/h2>\n\n

Pokud bude populace st\u00e1rnout, bude m\u00e9n\u011b pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst a v\u00edce d\u016fchodc\u016f. M\u016f\u017ee nastat i situace, kdy po\u010det obyvatel roste, ale ekonomick\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 nevytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed podm\u00ednky pro uspokojiv\u00fd \u017eivot. Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed pracovn\u00edci by v\u0161ak mohli p\u0159isp\u011bt k r\u016fstu ekonomiky. Jsou flexibiln\u00ed a sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed do t\u011bch profesn\u00edch odv\u011btv\u00ed, kde je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nedostatek pracovn\u00edch sil. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
NEJLEP\u0160\u00cd DEMOGRAFICK\u00dd GRAF<\/strong> (zdroj: OSN<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

„Zem\u011b Evropsk\u00e9 unie, kter\u00e9 podporuj\u00ed rodinnou politiku a sla\u010fov\u00e1n\u00ed pracovn\u00edho a rodinn\u00e9ho \u017eivota, maj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed porodnost. Imigrace v\u00fdznamn\u011b p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 k obnov\u011b a pos\u00edlen\u00ed aktivn\u00edho obyvatelstva na r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00edch odbornosti.“<\/p>

– sociolog Fran\u00e7ois H\u00e9ran <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

Z na\u0161eho pohledu je otev\u0159en\u00ed hranic t\u0159et\u00edm zem\u00edm jedn\u00edm ze zp\u016fsob\u016f, jak se vyhnout demografick\u00e9 krizi. Pokud se v\u00fdrazn\u011b nezv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed porodnost, migrace nebo \u00famrtnost, tlak na d\u016fchodov\u00fd syst\u00e9m se bude rychle zvy\u0161ovat. Migrace m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt kl\u00ed\u010dovou podm\u00ednkou pro to, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo st\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace a \u00fabytku pracovn\u00edch sil. To by neznamenalo riziko p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00ed d\u016fchodov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f v t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161ech zem\u00edch Evropsk\u00e9 unie. Pozitivn\u00edch dopad\u016f se do\u010dk\u00e1me pouze tehdy, pokud bude spole\u010dnost schopna migraci zvl\u00e1dnout a integrovat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jedn\u00edm z nejz\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edch, ale ne p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 popul\u00e1rn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f sou\u010dasnosti je st\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace. V r\u00e1mci Evropsk\u00e9 unie existuj\u00ed problematick\u00e9 ukazatele t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se porodnosti, co\u017e vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 \u00favahy o budoucnosti pracovn\u00ed s\u00edly, a to nejen v na\u0161\u00ed zemi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":23646,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[218,219,255],"tags":[],"acf":{"facebookpost":"","popis_socialneho_obrazku":""},"yoast_head":"\nM\u00e1 demografick\u00e1 k\u0159ivka vliv na pracovn\u00ed s\u00edlu? - Atena blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Spole\u010densk\u00e9 dopady o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje v\u011bkov\u00e9 struktury obyvatelstva budou v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch desetilet\u00edch v\u00fdznamn\u00e9. 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