{"id":15444,"date":"2020-05-14T13:22:59","date_gmt":"2020-05-14T11:22:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/da-li-je-ekonomska-kriza-jos-jedan-crni-labud\/"},"modified":"2020-05-15T10:56:24","modified_gmt":"2020-05-15T08:56:24","slug":"da-li-je-ekonomska-kriza-jos-jedan-crni-labud","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/hr\/da-li-je-ekonomska-kriza-jos-jedan-crni-labud\/","title":{"rendered":"Da li je ekonomska kriza jo\u0161 jedan crni labud?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Neo\u010dekivani doga\u0111aj,sa dramati\u010dnim uticajem na svet. Ponekad doleti i odleti, ali ostavlja iza sebe ostavi trag. Crni labud se vratio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Nije bilo druga\u010dije u 2008. godini, kada je sna\u017eno pogodio globalni finansijski sistem. Ili u 2011. kada je Evropu uzdrmala du\u017eni\u010dka kriza. Svet se jo\u0161 nije oporavio od posledica krize prie decenije, o \u010demu svedo\u010de nulte kamatne stope i nastavljeno kvantitativno ubla\u017eavanje. Dok posledice izvornog sistemskog uni\u0161tavanja jo\u0161 uvek traju, crni labud je ponovo leteo svetom. Ovaj put sa jo\u0161 vec\u0301im potencijalnim posledicama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zemlje se bore protiv krize<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Epidemiolo\u0161ke ili ekonomske krize imaju najmanje jedno zajedni\u010dko: njih se mo\u017ee zaustaviti. Mnoge zemlje u Aziji pokazale su kako se \u0161irenju malignog virusa mo\u017ee suzbiti i gotovo u potpunosti eliminisati. Upravni\u010dki i dr\u017eavno gledano, ovo je te\u0161ka borba, ali moguc\u0301a je.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ako se preduzmu brzi i efikasni postupci i zaustavi \u0161irenje virusa u prvoj fazi, kao \u0161to je to slu\u010daj, na primer, u Singapuru, ekonomske posledice su minimalne. Me\u0111utim, ako infekcija postane epidemija, koraci su mnogo slo\u017eeniji i bolniji. Ju\u017ena Koreja je tako\u0111e pokazala da se takva situacija mo\u017ee re\u0161iti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evropski neuspeh<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Evropa je zaostajala u spre\u010davanju i pripremi planova, testiranju potencijalno zara\u017eenih ljudi, prikupljanju i ocenjivanju podataka. Ali tako\u0111e i u pristupu pojedinaca \u0161irenju epidemije. Nije iznena\u0111ujuc\u0301e za mnoge, broj infekcija je porastao na hiljade dnevno u mnogim evropskim zemljama. Potvr\u0111eno je da su oni prema\u0161ili nivo u Kini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pad ekonomske proizvodnje iz oblasti Vuhan pokazao je koliko jaka karantena mo\u017ee imati na ekonomiju zemlje. Pad kineske ekonomije u prvom kvartalu bio je najvec\u0301i od po\u010detka merenja. Ovo je tako\u0111e izazvalo velike zabrinutosti za zdravlje evropske ekonomije kako epidemija raste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
REAKCIJA NA REALNE PLATE U EVROPI NAKON PANDEMIJE (izvor: FORBES<\/a>)<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Situacija u Evropi bitno je razli\u010dita od one u Aziji. U azijskoj lestvici vriednosti porodica je bila na vrhu, a dr\u017eava ispod nje, u Evropi je to bio sam pojedinac. Ispada da najvec\u0301a prietnja \u0161irenju epidemije na starom kontinentu nije samo nepripremljenost Evrope za epidemiju, vec\u0301 posebno zapadni individualizam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U Velikoj Britaniji, do \u010detvrtine stanovni\u0161tva je odbilo da promeni svoje koronavirusne navike. \u010cak i na osnovu svog polo\u017eaja, britanska vlada nije preduzela drasti\u010dnije mere, poput ukidanja masovnih akcija ili zatvaranja \u0161kola.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kraj trenutne ere globalizacije?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Koronavirus je uzrokovao pad realnih stopa za 1,5% u odnosu na o\u010dekivani razvoj bez pandemije. Mnogo evropskih pandemija tako\u0111e je rezultiralo padom trgovine. Dok su ja\u010di trgovinski odnosi pre krize doneli vi\u0161i \u017eivotni standard. Svaka briga za zdravlje donela je pad. Sa zavr\u0161etkom \u0161panskog gripa do\u0161ao je kraj prve ere industrijske globalizacije, koja je vec\u0301 zamrla usled prvog Prvog svetskog rata. Kriza u koroni mo\u017ee tako blokirati lanac snabdevanja iz Kine, koji je izgra\u0111en u poslednje dve decenije.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
REAKCIA EVROPSKE KAMATNE STOPE (izvor: FORBES<\/a>)<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Mo\u017eemo rec\u0301i da c\u0301e pandemije povec\u0301ati zarade navi\u0161e, ali c\u0301e razo\u010darati u stvarnim prinosima. Za razliku od drugih katastrofa, poput ratova ili prirodnih katastrofa, pandemije nemaju o\u0161tru potra\u017enju kapitala, \u0161to rezultira du\u017eim periodom realnih kamatnih stopa na skromnom nivou..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Neo\u010dekivani doga\u0111aj,sa dramati\u010dnim uticajem na svet. Ponekad doleti i odleti, ali ostavlja iza sebe ostavi trag. 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