{"id":28173,"date":"2019-11-13T08:01:25","date_gmt":"2019-11-13T07:01:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/utjece-li-demografska-krivulja-na-radnu-snagu\/"},"modified":"2022-08-26T11:50:42","modified_gmt":"2022-08-26T09:50:42","slug":"utjece-li-demografska-krivulja-na-radnu-snagu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/hr\/utjece-li-demografska-krivulja-na-radnu-snagu\/","title":{"rendered":"Utje\u010de li demografska krivulja na radnu snagu?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jedan od najozbiljnijih, ali ne toliko popularnih, problema dana\u0161njice je starenje stanovni\u0161tva. Unutar Europske unije bilje\u017ee se problemati\u010dni pokazatelji po pitanju nataliteta, \u0161to otvara pitanje budu\u0107nosti radne snage ne samo u na\u0161oj zemlji. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iako se Europska unija \u0161iri na nove dr\u017eave \u010dlanice i bogatstvo njezinih gra\u0111ana raste, mora se boriti s tim problemom. Ra\u0111a se sve manje djece, ugro\u017eava tr\u017ei\u0161te rada, zdravstveni i mirovinski sustav. Demografska izvje\u0161\u0107a upozoravaju da stanovni\u0161tvo Europe polako izumire. U isto vrijeme, istra\u017eivanja pokazuju da bi Europljani pozdravili vi\u0161e potomaka. Me\u0111utim, samo pod uvjetom da \u0107e za to biti ekonomski dostatni.<\/p>\n\n

Ho\u0107emo li svjedo\u010diti demografskoj krizi?<\/h2>\n\n

Velika je pretpostavka da \u0107emo u narednim desetlje\u0107ima svjedo\u010diti demografskoj krizi bez presedana. Zbog niskog nataliteta, odlaska mladih u inozemstvo, sve duljeg \u017eivotnog vijeka i zatvorenosti prema strancima, mogli bismo postati jedno od dru\u0161tava koja najvi\u0161e stare u Europskoj uniji. Starenje stanovni\u0161tva je naravno trend koji poga\u0111a sve razvijene zemlje svijeta, pa nije samo na\u0161 problem. \u0160to se ti\u010de demografskih prognoza, zapadna i sjeverna Europa znatno su bolje od zemalja ju\u017ene i isto\u010dne Europe. Rje\u0161enje demografske krize stoga treba uklju\u010divati mjere u podru\u010dju gospodarstva, zapo\u0161ljavanja i obitelji. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
PROCJENA KRETANJA STANOVNI\u0160TVA<\/strong> (izvor: Eurostat<\/a> )<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

Dok \u0107e zemlje poput Norve\u0161ke, Danske i Irske rasti u broju stanovnika, Finska \u0107e zadr\u017eati pribli\u017eno stabilnu populaciju. Slova\u010dkoj nakon 2030. godine prijeti postupno izumiranje i istovremeno br\u017ee starenje stanovni\u0161tva od zemalja zapadne i sjeverne Europe. I danas smo me\u0111u najmla\u0111im europskim narodima, ali starimo br\u017ee od ostalih. Do 2060. trebali bismo biti me\u0111u nacijama u Europi koje najvi\u0161e stare. To zna\u010di da \u0107e zdravstveni i mirovinski sustav biti puno te\u017ee financirati. Starenje se ne\u0107e odvijati postupno, ve\u0107 vrlo dinami\u010dno. Kao rezultat toga, postat \u0107emo jedna od populacija koja najbr\u017ee stari u Europi.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"
INDEKS STARIJE OVISNOSTI<\/strong> (izvor: Eurostat<\/a> )<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

U\u010dinak niskog nataliteta postupno \u0107e poja\u010dati starenje stanovni\u0161tva<\/h2>\n\n

Demografska kretanja u europskim zemljama previ\u0161e su razli\u010dita da bi se omogu\u0107ilo jedinstveno predvi\u0111anje rasta produktivnosti diljem Europe. Nema zemlje koja je samo pozitivna, ali se vide neke procjene trenda. Demografski “pobjednici” su sjeverne zemlje, ali i Njema\u010dka, gdje \u0107e se u sljede\u0107em desetlje\u0107u pove\u0107ati udio 30-49-godi\u0161njaka. O\u010dekuje se da \u0107e se sli\u010dan trend dogoditi u Danskoj, Belgiji, Nizozemskoj i Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu. Pove\u0107anje produktivnosti rada u srednjoj i isto\u010dnoj Europi moglo bi se zaustaviti i zbog smanjenja broja zaposlenih u dobi od 30 do 49 godina zbog njihove stalne migracije na Zapad. Osjetit \u0107e ga prije svega \u010ce\u0161ka i Ma\u0111arska. Slova\u010dka bi trebala biti manje pogo\u0111ena, ali \u0107e se u sljede\u0107em desetlje\u0107u osjetiti i pad radnika. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
RAST\/PAD UDJELA RADNIKA U DOBI<\/strong> 30-49 GODINA (izvor: Eulerhermes<\/a> )<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

Postoji nekoliko razloga za nepovoljne prognoze. Stopa nataliteta u Slova\u010dkoj ni\u017ea je nego u zemljama zapadne i sjeverne Europe. \u017dene su posve\u0107enije karijeri, sve je manje brakova i sve je ve\u0107i broj razvoda. Tome je potrebno pridodati i nove obrasce su\u017eivota, na koje savjetujemo samohrane roditelje ili homoseksualne zajednice. Mnogi mladi ljudi odlaze u bogatije zemlje radi boljeg obrazovanja i prilika za karijeru. Ostaje paradoks da smo za useljenike iz drugih zemalja prili\u010dno zatvoreni i vjerojatno im nismo posebno privla\u010dni. Pa nismo mi jedina dr\u017eava koja se mu\u010di, odn borit \u0107e se s propadanjem ljudi.<\/p>\n\n

“Prirodni odljev puno je \u010de\u0161\u0107i u Europi nego u SAD-u zbog starijeg stanovni\u0161tva, ni\u017ee stope nataliteta i manjeg broja \u017eena u generativnoj dobi. Prirodni odljev je velika politi\u010dka briga jer naru\u0161ava demografsku otpornost regije, smanjuju\u0107i njezinu ekonomsku odr\u017eivost i konkurentnost.” <\/p>

– demograf Dudley Poston s kolegama s teksa\u0161kog sveu\u010dili\u0161ta A&M <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

Migracija kao rje\u0161enje problema<\/h2>\n\n

Ako stanovni\u0161tvo stari, bit \u0107e manje radnih aktivnosti i vi\u0161e umirovljenika. Tako\u0111er mo\u017ee do\u0107i do situacije da \u0107e stanovni\u0161tvo rasti, ali ekonomska razina ne\u0107e stvoriti uvjete za zadovoljavaju\u0107i \u017eivot. Me\u0111utim, strani radnici mogli bi pomo\u0107i rastu gospodarstva. Fleksibilni su i odlaze u one sektore zanimanja gdje je najve\u0107i nedostatak radne snage. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
NAJIDEALNIJI GRAF DEMOGRAFSKE KRIVULJE<\/strong> (izvor: United Nations<\/a> )<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

“Zemlje Europske unije koje podr\u017eavaju obiteljsku politiku i uskla\u0111ivanje poslovnog i obiteljskog \u017eivota imaju vi\u0161u stopu nataliteta. Imigracija daje zna\u010dajan doprinos obnovi i ja\u010danju aktivnog stanovni\u0161tva na razli\u010ditim razinama stru\u010dnosti.”<\/p>

– sociolog Fran\u00e7ois H\u00e9ran <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

S na\u0161e strane, otvaranje granica prema tre\u0107im zemljama jedan je od na\u010dina da se izbjegne demografska kriza. Ako se stopa nataliteta, migracija ili stopa smrtnosti ne pove\u0107a iz temelja, pritisak na mirovinski sustav \u0107e brzo rasti. Migracije mogu biti klju\u010dni uvjet za izbjegavanje starenja stanovni\u0161tva i smanjenja radne snage. Ne bi bilo opasnosti od preoptere\u0107enja mirovinskih sustava u gotovo svim zemljama Europske unije. Pozitivne u\u010dinke vidjet \u0107emo tek kada tvrtka bude u stanju upravljati i konsolidirati migraciju.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jedan od najozbiljnijih, ali ne toliko popularnih, problema dana\u0161njice je starenje stanovni\u0161tva. Unutar Europske unije bilje\u017ee se problemati\u010dni pokazatelji po pitanju nataliteta, \u0161to otvara pitanje budu\u0107nosti radne snage ne samo u na\u0161oj zemlji.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":8332,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[152,174,175],"tags":[],"acf":{"facebookpost":"","popis_socialneho_obrazku":""},"yoast_head":"\nUtje\u010de li demografska krivulja na radnu snagu? - Atena blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dru\u0161tveni u\u010dinci o\u010dekivanog razvoja dobne strukture stanovni\u0161tva bit \u0107e ozbiljni u narednim desetlje\u0107ima. 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