{"id":32102,"date":"2020-01-08T13:11:45","date_gmt":"2020-01-08T12:11:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/ako-ovplyvni-brexit-trh-prace-u-europskej-unii\/"},"modified":"2022-08-26T11:59:42","modified_gmt":"2022-08-26T09:59:42","slug":"ako-ovplyvni-brexit-trh-prace-u-europskej-unii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/hr\/ako-ovplyvni-brexit-trh-prace-u-europskej-unii\/","title":{"rendered":"Ako ovplyvn\u00ed Brexit trh pr\u00e1ce u Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanii?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Po Brexite, ktor\u00fd v Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanii o\u010dak\u00e1vame u\u017e druh\u00fd rok, nastan\u00fa ve\u013ek\u00e9 zmeny vo fungovan\u00ed spolo\u010dn\u00e9ho obchodu, pohybu os\u00f4b, tovaru \u010di slu\u017eieb. Bud\u00fa zamestn\u00e1vatelia z Brexitu profitova\u0165? Ak\u00e9 negat\u00edva a pozit\u00edva prinesie odchod Brit\u00e1nie z Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanie? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odchod Velike Britanije od Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanie (E\u00da) bez dogovora, teda tvrd\u00fd brexit, by pod\u013ea najnov\u0161ej \u0161t\u00fadie najsilnej\u0161ie zasiahol pracovn\u00fd trh na Malte, u \u00cdrsku, Belgiju i na Slovensku. Tieto krajiny maj\u00fa s Brit\u00e1niou intenz\u00edvnu v\u00fdmenu tovarov a slu\u017eieb. Velika Britanija uvozi pribli\u017eno 38% potro\u0161ene, pri \u010demu EU tvor\u00ed ve\u013ek\u00fa \u010das\u0165 dovozu potravin\u00e1rskych v\u00fdrobkov. T\u00e1to otvorenos\u0165 v\u0161ak uz \u010doskoro skon\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n

Vyst\u00fapenie Brit\u00e1nie z EU najviac ovplyvn\u00ed po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstvo<\/h2>\n\n

Pod\u013ea \u0161t\u00fadie belgickej Katol\u00edckej University v Lovani sa uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee pr\u00edpadn\u00e9 vyst\u00fapenie Ve\u013ekej Brit\u00e1nie iz EU by little fat\u00e1lne n\u00e1sledky pre ekonomiku celej Eur\u00f3py. O pr\u00e1cu kv\u00f4li Brexitu m\u00f4\u017ee pr\u00eds\u0165 a\u017e 1,2 mili\u00f3na \u013eud\u00ed, ktor\u00ed tam v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti pracuj\u00fa. Vzh\u013eadom k tome, \u017ee eur\u00f3psky trh je tak silne previazan\u00fd, Brexit sa dotkne n\u00e1s v\u0161etk\u00fdch. Tvrd\u00fd Brexit by postihol v jednotliv\u00fdch krajin\u00e1ch rozli\u010dn\u00e9 odgovor. U Braz\u00edlii av Bulharsku by napr\u00edklad najviac utrpelo po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstvo, u Njema\u010dkoj i \u010cesku automobilov\u00fd priemysel, u Belgiji i Rak\u00fasku maloobchod a ve\u013ekoobchod. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
NEGAT\u00cdVNE \u00da\u010cINKY BREXITU NA V\u00ddVOZ Z E\u00da<\/strong> (zdroj: Funcas<\/a> )<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

“V s\u00fa\u010dasnom globaliziranom svete mo\u017eno predpoklada\u0165, \u017ee ak by nastal nedostatok niektor\u00fdch druhov tovarov, priestor na trhu by bol vo v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ine pr\u00edpadov ve\u013emi r\u00fdchlo vyplnen\u00fd ponukou konkurencie, \u010di u\u017e z \u010dlensk\u00fdch kraj\u00edn E\u00da alibo preferen\u010dn\u00fdmi dovozmi.” <\/p>

– hovorca ministerstva hospod\u00e1rstva<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

Eur\u00f3psky jednotn\u00fd trh stoj\u00ed na princ\u00edpe vo\u013en\u00e9ho pohybu tovaru, os\u00f4b, slu\u017eieb a kapit\u00e1lu. Po odchode Brit\u00e1nie z E\u00da t\u00e1to dohoda prestane plati\u0165. Svoj\u00edm odchodom spust\u00ed re\u0165azec, ktor\u00fd sa pravdepodobne bude \u0165aha\u0165 nieko\u013eko rokov a postupne sa tak dotkne n\u00e1s v\u0161etk\u00fdch. Paradoks je, \u017ee Brexit sa dotkne trhu pr\u00e1ce aj samotn\u00fdch Britov. Pod\u013ea belgickej \u0161t\u00fadie by ich o pr\u00e1cu mohlo pr\u00eds\u0165 viac ako pol mili\u00f3na. Samozrejme bude to v\u00fdrazne vpl\u00fdva\u0165 aj na ostatn\u00e9 krajiny Eur\u00f3py. O zamestnanie by mohlo pr\u00eds\u0165 pribli\u017ene 291 tis\u00edc Nemcov, 141 tis\u00edc Franc\u00fazov, 139 tis\u00edc Talianov \u010di tie\u017e 122 tis\u00edc Poliakov. Samozrejme odchod Brit\u00e1nie z E\u00da prinesie viacero probl\u00e9mov. <\/p>\n\n

O pr\u00e1cu pr\u00edde viac ako 1,2 mili\u00f3na \u013eud\u00ed<\/h2>\n\n

Mnoh\u00ed analytici predpovedaj\u00fa, \u017ee nezamestnanos\u0165 u Brit\u00e1nii, ktor\u00e1 sa moment\u00e1lne pohybuje oko \u00farovne 5%, \u010do je najni\u017e\u0161ia \u00farove\u0148 za zruba 10 godina, po odhodu od E\u00da st\u00fapne. Spomalenie ekonomiky sa negat\u00edvne dotkne aj platov. Britsk\u00fd N\u00e1rodn\u00fd in\u0161tit\u00fat pre hospod\u00e1rsky a soci\u00e1lny v\u00fdskum predpovedal, \u017ee realne mzdy bud\u00fa po odhodu od E\u00da do roka 2030. o 2,2 do 7% manje ako je u pr\u00edpade, keby Brit\u00e1nia ostala u bloku. To kontrastuje s tvrden\u00edm st\u00fapencov Brexitu, ktor\u00ed argumentovali, \u017ee trh pr\u00e1ce bude po odchode z \u00fanie dynamickej\u0161\u00ed, ke\u010f ho nebud\u00fa brzdi\u0165 eur\u00f3pske regul\u00e1cie.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"
PREDPOKLADAN\u00c9 STRATY<\/strong> (zdroj: Funcas<\/a> )<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

Referendum ovplyvnila aj migra\u010dn\u00e1 kriza, koji je nastao u roku 2016. Nemecko chcelo rie\u0161i\u0165 kv\u00f3ty a probl\u00e9m t\u00fdkaj\u00faci sa migra\u010dnej kr\u00edzy prostredn\u00edctvom ak\u010dn\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nu medzi E\u00da a Tureckom. Ten by znamenal dobrovo\u013en\u00e9 prij\u00edmanie migrantov z Turecka. Probl\u00e9mom sa stala aj ot\u00e1zka o odchode Brit\u00e1nie z E\u00da, osim ako pod\u013ea statistik\u00edk ro\u010dne pr\u00edjme Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1\u013eovstvo viac migrantov ne\u017e ktor\u00e1ko\u013evek in\u00e1 \u010dlensk\u00e1 krajina E\u00da (vr\u00e1tane Njema\u010dka). U\u017e pred ofici\u00e1lnym vyhl\u00e1sen\u00edm referendumom za\u010dali zahrani\u010dn\u00e9 banky s pobo\u010dkami v Lond\u00fdne kalkulova\u0165 ich presun do inej eur\u00f3pskej metropoly.<\/p>\n\n

“V s\u00fa\u010dasnosti tvoria pracovn\u00edci z cudziny d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fa \u010das\u0165 britskej ekonomiky, pracovn\u00fd trh je hladn\u00fd po nov\u00fdch sil\u00e1ch. Ak nepr\u00edde ku katastrof\u00e1lnej recesii, nebude ve\u013ek\u00fd z\u00e1ujem robi\u0165 existuj\u00facim zamestnancom ak\u00e9ko\u013evek probl\u00e9my, nech u\u017e prebehne ak\u00fdko\u013evek scen\u00e1r,” <\/p>

– analytik In\u0161tit\u00fatu ekonomick\u00fdch a spolo\u010densk\u00fdch anal\u00fdz<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

U pr\u00edpade tvrd\u00e9ho Brexitu pri\u0161la je Velika Britanija o vi\u0161e od 1,2 milijuna zamje\u0161tanca iz cijele europske \u00fanije, koja je trenutna zamjestn\u00e1va. Tento krok by bol obrovsk\u00fdm \u0161okom pre britsk\u00fa ekonomiku, ktor\u00fd by mohol ma\u0165 fat\u00e1lne n\u00e1sledky. <\/p>\n\n

Brit\u00e1nia kao “tretia krajina”<\/h2>\n\n

Brit\u00e1nia m\u00f4\u017ee po novom u bud\u00facnosti fungova\u0165 aj u re\u017eimu “tretej krajiny” pod\u013ea pravidiel WTO (Svetov\u00e1 obchodn\u00e1 organiz\u00e1cia). To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee by si pravidl\u00e1 migra\u010dnej politiky ur\u010dovala sama. V tomto pr\u00edpade pravdepodobne predstav\u00ed nejak\u00fd bodovni c\u00ed syst\u00e9m ako m\u00e1 Austr\u00e1lia a zamestnanci z cudziny bud\u00fa prij\u00edman\u00ed prioritne pod\u013ea schopnost\u00ed. Najpravdepodobnej\u0161ou alternat\u00edvou je, \u017ee v Brit\u00e1nii bud\u00fa m\u00f4c\u0165 \u013eudia z \u00danie na\u010falej pracova\u0165 bez z\u00e1sadnej\u0161\u00edch probl\u00e9mov, no nebud\u00fa m\u00f4c\u0165 z\u00edska\u0165 napr\u00edklad soci\u00e1lne d\u00e1vky. Predpoklad\u00e1 sa, \u017ee odpor vo\u010di migrantom u ovoj krajine spo\u010d\u00edval sk\u00f4r v neochote vypl\u00e1ca\u0165 tieto d\u00e1vky. Na drugoj strani v\u0161ak plat\u00ed, \u017ee niektor\u00e9 profesie nie s\u00fa ochotn\u00ed Briti robi\u0165, preto bud\u00fa aj na\u010falej potrebova\u0165 pracovn\u00fa silu zo zahrani\u010dia. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
STRATA HDP V D\u00d4SLEDKU \u201eNEOBCHODOVANIA\u201c<\/strong> (zdroj: Funcas<\/a> )<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

\u201eBrexit vyvol\u00e1va v investoroch neistotu a vpl\u00fdva na ekonomski rast t\u00fdm, \u017ee rozhodnutia o invest\u00edci\u00e1ch a rozvoji sa odkladaj\u00fa, \u010di dokonca pres\u00favaj\u00fa geograficky. Vplyv Brexitu je jednozna\u010dna negativna prema Eur\u00f3pu i njen ekonomski rast,\u201c <\/p>

– \u010dlen predstavenstva a ved\u00faci \u00faseku riadenia invest\u00edci\u00ed DSS Po\u0161tovej banky<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

Odchod Velike Britanije od Europske Unije sa zd\u00e1 ako neodvr\u00e1tite\u013en\u00fd fakt, preto bude na\u0161ou \u00falohou vyu\u017ei\u0165 tuto vzniknut\u00fa \u0161ancu u plnej miere a pok\u00fasi\u0165 sa maximalizova\u0165 pozit\u00edvne vplyvy vo\u010di ekonomije. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 bude potrebn\u00e9 minimalizova\u0165 negat\u00edva, ktor\u00e9 plyn\u00fa z odchodu Spojen\u00e9ho kr\u00e1\u013eovstva z eur\u00f3pskeho spolo\u010denstva. Britsk\u00e9 firmy tak bud\u00fa n\u00faten\u00e9 prerozdeli\u0165 svoju v\u00fdrobu a p\u00f4sobisko, aby si zachovali svoju konkurencieschopnos\u0165. Tak\u00fdmto sp\u00f4sobom bude eminentn\u00fdm z\u00e1ujmom britsk\u00fdch firiem vytv\u00e1ra\u0165 pobo\u010dky v Eur\u00f3pe. Po vyst\u00fapen\u00ed z \u00danie zostan\u00fa parametar migr\u00e1cie nezmenen\u00e9 av r\u00e1mci Ve\u013ekej Brit\u00e1nie ned\u00f4jde k zv\u00fd\u0161eniu regula\u010dnej fleksibilnosti. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Po Brexite, ktor\u00fd v Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanii o\u010dak\u00e1vame u\u017e druh\u00fd rok, nastan\u00fa ve\u013ek\u00e9 zmeny vo fungovan\u00ed spolo\u010dn\u00e9ho obchodu, pohybu os\u00f4b, tovaru \u010di slu\u017eieb. Bud\u00fa zamestn\u00e1vatelia z Brexitu profitova\u0165? Ak\u00e9 negat\u00edva a pozit\u00edva prinesie odchod Brit\u00e1nie z Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanie?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":11453,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[152,175],"tags":[],"acf":{"facebookpost":"","popis_socialneho_obrazku":""},"yoast_head":"\nAko ovplyvn\u00ed Brexit trh pr\u00e1ce u Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanii? - Atena blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Po Brexite nastan\u00fa ve\u013ek\u00e9 zmeny vo fungovan\u00ed spolo\u010dn\u00e9ho obchodu, pohybu os\u00f4b, tovaru \u010di slu\u017eieb. 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