{"id":14292,"date":"2019-11-13T08:01:25","date_gmt":"2019-11-13T07:01:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/a-demografiai-gorbe-hatassal-van-a-dolgozokra\/"},"modified":"2020-03-09T10:46:17","modified_gmt":"2020-03-09T09:46:17","slug":"a-demografiai-gorbe-hatassal-van-a-dolgozokra","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/hu\/a-demografiai-gorbe-hatassal-van-a-dolgozokra\/","title":{"rendered":"A demogr\u00e1fiai g\u00f6rbe hat\u00e1ssal van a dolgoz\u00f3kra?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Napjaink egyik legs\u00falyosabb, nem t\u00fal n\u00e9pszer\u0171 probl\u00e9m\u00e1ja a n\u00e9pess\u00e9g el\u00f6reged\u00e9se. Az Eur\u00f3pai Uni\u00f3n bel\u00fcl a sz\u00fclet\u00e9si ar\u00e1ny probl\u00e9m\u00e1s mutat\u00f3i nemcsak haz\u00e1nkban ad okot az aggodalomra a munkaer\u0151 j\u00f6v\u0151j\u00e9vel kapcsolatban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

B\u00e1r az Eur\u00f3pai Uni\u00f3 \u00faj tag\u00e1llamok felv\u00e9tel\u00e9vel b\u0151v\u00fcl \u00e9s a lakoss\u00e1g \u00e9letsz\u00ednvonala is emelkedik, m\u00e9gis meg kell k\u00fczdenie ezzel a probl\u00e9m\u00e1val. Az \u00fajsz\u00fcl\u00f6ttek egyre cs\u00f6kken\u0151 ar\u00e1nya a munkaer\u0151piacot, az eg\u00e9szs\u00e9g\u00fcgyi- \u00e9s nyugd\u00edjrendszert egyar\u00e1nt vesz\u00e9lyezteti. Demogr\u00e1fiai jelent\u00e9sek figyelmeztetnek arra, hogy az eur\u00f3pai n\u00e9pess\u00e9g lassan kihal. Ugyanakkor egyes felm\u00e9r\u00e9sek szerint az eur\u00f3paiak sz\u00edvesen l\u00e1tn\u00e1nak t\u00f6bb ut\u00f3dot. De csak ha gazdas\u00e1gilag megengedhet\u0151.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Demogr\u00e1fiai v\u00e1ls\u00e1g tan\u00fai lesz\u00fcnk?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nagy val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9ggel felt\u00e9telezhet\u0151, hogy az elk\u00f6vetkezend\u0151 \u00e9vtizedekben egy eddig nem l\u00e1tott demogr\u00e1fiai v\u00e1ls\u00e1g tan\u00fai lesz\u00fcnk. Az alacsony sz\u00fclet\u00e9si ar\u00e1nyok, a k\u00fclf\u00f6ldre t\u00e1voz\u00f3 fiatalok, az emelked\u0151 v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 \u00e9lettartam \u00e9s az elidegened\u00e9s miatt az egyik legel\u00f6reged\u0151bb t\u00e1rsadalomm\u00e1 v\u00e1lhatunk az Eur\u00f3pai Uni\u00f3ban. Term\u00e9szetesen a t\u00e1rsadalom el\u00f6reged\u00e9se egy trend, amely vil\u00e1gszerte \u00e9rinti a fejlett t\u00e1rsadalmakat, teh\u00e1t nem csak a mi probl\u00e9m\u00e1nk. A demogr\u00e1fiai el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerint Nyugat- \u00e9s Kelet-Eur\u00f3pa kifejezetten jobb helyzetben van, mint D\u00e9l- \u00e9s Kelet-Eur\u00f3pa orsz\u00e1gai. A demogr\u00e1fiai v\u00e1ls\u00e1g megold\u00e1s\u00e1nak ez\u00e9rt gazdas\u00e1gi, foglalkoztat\u00e1si \u00e9s csal\u00e1di int\u00e9zked\u00e9seket is kell tartalmaznia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A N\u00c9PESS\u00c9G EL\u0150JELZETT ALAKUL\u00c1SA<\/strong> (forr\u00e1s: Eurostat<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

M\u00edg egyes orsz\u00e1gok, mint p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul Norv\u00e9gia, D\u00e1nia \u00e9s \u00cdrorsz\u00e1g n\u00e9pess\u00e9g\u00e9nek n\u00f6veked\u00e9se v\u00e1rhat\u00f3, Finnorsz\u00e1g n\u00e9pess\u00e9ge viszonylag stabil marad. 2030 ut\u00e1n Szlov\u00e1kia fokozatos kihal\u00e1sa v\u00e1rhat\u00f3, mik\u00f6zben n\u00e9pess\u00e9ge Nyugat- \u00e9s \u00c9szak-Eur\u00f3pa orsz\u00e1gaihoz hasonl\u00f3an fog el\u00f6regedni. Napjainkban az egyik legfiatalabb eur\u00f3pai nemzetnek sz\u00e1m\u00edtunk, azonban gyorsabban \u00f6regsz\u00fcnk, mint m\u00e1sok. 2060-ra Eur\u00f3pa egyik legel\u00f6reged\u0151bb nemzet\u00e9v\u00e9 v\u00e1lunk. Ez azt jelenti, hogy sokkal nehezebb lesz fenntartani az eg\u00e9szs\u00e9g\u00fcgyi \u00e9s nyugd\u00edjrendszerek finansz\u00edroz\u00e1s\u00e1t. Az el\u00f6reged\u00e9s pedig nem fokozatosan, hanem kifejezetten dinamikusan fog v\u00e9gbemenni. K\u00f6vetkez\u00e9sk\u00e9pp mi lesz\u00fcnk az egyik leggyorsabban \u00f6reged\u0151 n\u00e9pess\u00e9g Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
ID\u0150SKOR\u00da ELTARTOTTAK AR\u00c1NYA<\/strong> (forr\u00e1s: Eurostat<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Az alacsony sz\u00fclet\u00e9si ar\u00e1ny fokozatosan n\u00f6veli az el\u00f6reged\u0151 n\u00e9pess\u00e9get<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Az eur\u00f3pai orsz\u00e1gok demogr\u00e1fiai trendjei t\u00fals\u00e1gosan elt\u00e9r\u0151k ahhoz, hogy egyetlen el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st lehessen adni a termel\u00e9kenys\u00e9g n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9re Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ban. Nincs olyan orsz\u00e1g, amely csak a pozit\u00edv oldalon szerepelne, azonban n\u00e9h\u00e1ny trendbecsl\u00e9s l\u00e1that\u00f3. A demogr\u00e1fiai \u201egy\u0151ztesek\u201d az \u00e9szaki orsz\u00e1gok, valamint N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g, ahol a 30\u201349 \u00e9vesek ar\u00e1nya emelkedni fog a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vtizedben. Hasonl\u00f3 trend v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 D\u00e1ni\u00e1ban, Belgiumban, Hollandi\u00e1ban \u00e9s az Egyes\u00fclt Kir\u00e1lys\u00e1gban is. A munkaer\u0151 termel\u00e9kenys\u00e9g\u00e9nek a n\u00f6veked\u00e9se K\u00f6z\u00e9p- \u00e9s Kelet-Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ban is v\u00e9get \u00e9rhet a 30\u201349 \u00e9ves alkalmazottak sz\u00e1m\u00e1nak cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se miatt a nyugatra t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 migr\u00e1ci\u00f3 k\u00f6vetkezt\u00e9ben. Ez f\u0151k\u00e9nt Csehorsz\u00e1gban \u00e9s Magyarorsz\u00e1gon lesz \u00e9rezhet\u0151. Szlov\u00e1ki\u00e1t kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 fogja \u00e9rinteni, azonban a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vtizedben a dolgoz\u00f3k sz\u00e1ma szint\u00e9n cs\u00f6kkenni fog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A 30\u201349 \u00c9VES DOLGOZ\u00d3K AR\u00c1NY\u00c1NAK N\u00d6VEKED\u00c9SE\/CS\u00d6KKEN\u00c9SE<\/strong> (forr\u00e1s: Eulerhermes<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Sz\u00e1mos oka lehet a kedvez\u0151tlen el\u0151rejelz\u00e9seknek. A term\u00e9kenys\u00e9gi r\u00e1ta Szlov\u00e1ki\u00e1ban alacsonyabb, mint Nyugat- \u00e9s \u00c9szak-Eur\u00f3pa orsz\u00e1gaiban. A n\u0151k ink\u00e1bb a karrierj\u00fckkel vannak elfoglalva, \u00edgy a h\u00e1zass\u00e1gok \u00e9s v\u00e1l\u00e1sok ar\u00e1nya is alacsonyabb. Ehhez az \u00faj egy\u00fctt\u00e9l\u00e9si mint\u00e1k is hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rulnak, az egyed\u00fcl\u00e1ll\u00f3 sz\u00fcl\u0151k vagy a homoszexu\u00e1lis p\u00e1rok. Sok fiatal gazdagabb orsz\u00e1gokba k\u00f6lt\u00f6zik a jobb oktat\u00e1si \u00e9s karrierlehet\u0151s\u00e9gek miatt. A paradoxon viszont megmarad, hogy nem vagyunk nyitottak a m\u00e1s orsz\u00e1gokb\u00f3l \u00e9rkez\u0151 bev\u00e1ndorl\u00f3kkal szemben, \u00e9s mi sem vagyunk k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen vonz\u00f3k sz\u00e1mukra. Teh\u00e1t nem mi vagyunk az egyetlen \u00e1llam, amelyik k\u00fcszk\u00f6dik. \u00c9s k\u00fcszk\u00f6dni is fog az emberek elveszt\u00e9s\u00e9vel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eA term\u00e9szetes visszaes\u00e9s sokkal gyakoribb Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ban, mint az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamokban, az id\u0151sebb n\u00e9pess\u00e9g, az alacsonyabb sz\u00fclet\u00e9si ar\u00e1ny \u00e9s a kevesebb term\u00e9keny n\u0151 miatt. A term\u00e9szetes visszaes\u00e9s komoly politikai aggodalomra ad okot, mert elsz\u00edvja a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 demogr\u00e1fiai rugalmass\u00e1g\u00e1t, cs\u00f6kkenti gazdas\u00e1gi \u00e9letk\u00e9pess\u00e9g\u00e9t \u00e9s versenyk\u00e9pess\u00e9g\u00e9t.\u201d<\/p>

– Dudley Poston, demogr\u00e1fus, \u00e9s munkat\u00e1rsai a Texas A&M Egyetemr\u0151l<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

A migr\u00e1ci\u00f3, mint a probl\u00e9ma megold\u00e1sa<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A n\u00e9pess\u00e9g el\u00f6reged\u00e9se eset\u00e9n a munkatev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g cs\u00f6kken, a nyugd\u00edjasok pedig t\u00f6bben lesznek. Ak\u00e1r olyan helyzet is el\u0151\u00e1llhat, hogy a n\u00e9pess\u00e9g n\u00f6vekszik, de a gazdas\u00e1gi nem teremti meg a megfelel\u0151 \u00e9letsz\u00ednvonal felt\u00e9teleit. A k\u00fclf\u00f6ldi munkav\u00e1llal\u00f3k azonban hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rulhatnak a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9shez. Rugalmasak, \u00e9s azokra a szakter\u00fcletekre p\u00e1ly\u00e1znak, ahol a legnagyobb a munkaer\u0151hi\u00e1ny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A LEGIDE\u00c1LISABB DEMOGR\u00c1FIAI G\u00d6RBE<\/strong> (forr\u00e1s: OSN<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201eAz Eur\u00f3pai Uni\u00f3 csal\u00e1dpolitik\u00e1t, valamint a munka \u00e9s a csal\u00e1di \u00e9let \u00f6sszeegyeztet\u00e9s\u00e9t t\u00e1mogat\u00f3 orsz\u00e1gaiban magasabb a sz\u00fclet\u00e9si ar\u00e1ny. A bev\u00e1ndorl\u00e1s jelent\u0151sen hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rul az akt\u00edv n\u00e9pess\u00e9g meg\u00fajul\u00e1s\u00e1hoz \u00e9s felhatalmaz\u00e1s\u00e1hoz, a szak\u00e9rtelem k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 szintjein.\u201d<\/p>

– Fran\u00e7ois H\u00e9ran, szociol\u00f3gus <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u00dagy v\u00e9lj\u00fck, hogy a demogr\u00e1fiai v\u00e1ls\u00e1g elker\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9nek egyik m\u00f3dja a hat\u00e1rok megnyit\u00e1sa harmadik orsz\u00e1gok sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra. Amennyiben a sz\u00fclet\u00e9si ar\u00e1ny, a migr\u00e1ci\u00f3 vagy a hal\u00e1loz\u00e1si ar\u00e1ny nem emelkedik jelent\u0151sen, akkor a nyugd\u00edjrendszerre nehezed\u0151 nyom\u00e1s gyorsan fog n\u00f6vekedni. A migr\u00e1ci\u00f3 kulcsfontoss\u00e1g\u00fa felt\u00e9tele lehet a n\u00e9pess\u00e9gel\u00f6reged\u00e9s \u00e9s a munkaer\u0151-vesztes\u00e9g megel\u0151z\u00e9s\u00e9nek. \u00cdgy elker\u00fclhet\u0151 lenne a nyugd\u00edjrendszerek t\u00falterhel\u00e9se szinte az \u00f6sszes EU-tag\u00e1llamban. Csak akkor lesz pozit\u00edv hat\u00e1sa, ha a t\u00e1rsadalom k\u00e9pes lesz a migr\u00e1ci\u00f3 kezel\u00e9s\u00e9re \u00e9s konszolid\u00e1ci\u00f3j\u00e1ra.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Napjaink egyik legs\u00falyosabb, nem t\u00fal n\u00e9pszer\u0171 probl\u00e9m\u00e1ja a n\u00e9pess\u00e9g el\u00f6reged\u00e9se. Az Eur\u00f3pai Uni\u00f3n bel\u00fcl a sz\u00fclet\u00e9si ar\u00e1ny probl\u00e9m\u00e1s mutat\u00f3i nemcsak haz\u00e1nkban ad okot az aggodalomra a munkaer\u0151 j\u00f6v\u0151j\u00e9vel kapcsolatban.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":8061,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[140,141,171],"tags":[],"acf":{"facebookpost":"","popis_socialneho_obrazku":""},"yoast_head":"\nA demogr\u00e1fiai g\u00f6rbe hat\u00e1ssal van a dolgoz\u00f3kra? - Atena blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A n\u00e9pess\u00e9g \u00e9letkori strukt\u00far\u00e1j\u00e1nak v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 alakul\u00e1sa s\u00falyos hat\u00e1ssal lesz a t\u00e1rsadalomra az elk\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vtizedekben. 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