{"id":28199,"date":"2019-11-13T08:01:25","date_gmt":"2019-11-13T07:01:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/ar-demografine-kreive-turi-itakos-darbo-jegai\/"},"modified":"2022-08-26T11:51:02","modified_gmt":"2022-08-26T09:51:02","slug":"ar-demografine-kreive-turi-itakos-darbo-jegai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/lt\/ar-demografine-kreive-turi-itakos-darbo-jegai\/","title":{"rendered":"Ar demografin\u0117 kreiv\u0117 turi \u012ftakos darbo j\u0117gai?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Viena i\u0161 rim\u010diausi\u0173, ta\u010diau ne taip populiariai sprend\u017eiam\u0173 \u0161i\u0173 laik\u0173 problem\u0173 yra visuomen\u0117s sen\u0117jimas. Europos S\u0105jungoje gimstamumo rodikliai yra problemi\u0161ki, o tai ver\u010dia susim\u0105styti apie darbo j\u0117gos ateit\u012f ne tik m\u016bs\u0173 \u0161alyje. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nors Europos S\u0105junga ple\u010diasi ir joje atsiranda nauj\u0173 valstybi\u0173 nari\u0173, o jos pilie\u010di\u0173 gerov\u0117 did\u0117ja, ji susiduria su \u0161ia problema. Vis ma\u017eesnis gimstamumas kelia gr\u0117sm\u0119 darbo rinkai, sveikatos prie\u017ei\u016bros sistemai ir pensij\u0173 sistemai. Demografin\u0117se ataskaitose \u012fsp\u0117jama, kad Europos gyventojai pama\u017eu nyksta. Tuo pat metu apklausos rodo, kad europie\u010diai nor\u0117t\u0173 tur\u0117ti daugiau palikuoni\u0173. Ta\u010diau tik darant prielaid\u0105, kad jos bus ekonomi\u0161kai pakankamos.<\/p>\n\n

Ar sulauksime demografin\u0117s kriz\u0117s?<\/h2>\n\n

Galima tvirtai prognozuoti, kad artimiausiais de\u0161imtme\u010diais i\u0161gyvensime precedento neturin\u010di\u0105 demografin\u0119 kriz\u0119. D\u0117l ma\u017eo gimstamumo, jaun\u0173 \u017emoni\u0173 i\u0161vykimo \u012f u\u017esien\u012f, ilg\u0117jan\u010dios gyvenimo trukm\u0117s ir u\u017edaro po\u017ei\u016brio \u012f u\u017esienie\u010dius galime tapti viena labiausiai sen\u0117jan\u010di\u0173 visuomeni\u0173 Europos S\u0105jungoje. Gyventoj\u0173 sen\u0117jimas, be abejo, yra tendencija, su kuria susiduria visos i\u0161sivys\u010diusios pasaulio \u0161alys, taigi tai n\u0117ra vien m\u016bs\u0173 problema. Pagal demografines prognozes Vakar\u0173 ir \u0160iaur\u0117s Europos pad\u0117tis yra pastebimai geresn\u0117 nei Piet\u0173 ir Ryt\u0173 Europos. Tod\u0117l sprend\u017eiant demografin\u0119 kriz\u0119 reik\u0117t\u0173 imtis priemoni\u0173 ekonomikos, u\u017eimtumo ir \u0161eimos sektoriuose. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
PROGNOZUOJAMAS gyventoj\u0173 skai\u010diaus augimas<\/strong> (\u0161altinis: Eurostatas<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

Tokiose \u0161alyse kaip Norvegija, Danija ir Airija gyventoj\u0173 skai\u010dius did\u0117s, o Suomijoje gyventoj\u0173 skai\u010dius i\u0161liks beveik nepakit\u0119s. Po 2030 m. Slovakijos laukia laipsni\u0161kas gyventoj\u0173 i\u0161nykimas ir tuo pat metu spartesnis gyventoj\u0173 sen\u0117jimas nei Vakar\u0173 ir \u0160iaur\u0117s Europos \u0161alyse. \u0160iandien vis dar esame viena jauniausi\u0173 Europos taut\u0173, ta\u010diau senstame grei\u010diau nei kitos. Iki 2060 m. jau tur\u0117tume b\u016bti viena labiausiai senstan\u010di\u0173 Europos taut\u0173. Tai rei\u0161kia, kad bus daug sunkiau i\u0161laikyti sveikatos ir pensij\u0173 sistem\u0173 finansavim\u0105. Taigi sen\u0117jimas bus ne laipsni\u0161kas, o labai dinami\u0161kas. Tod\u0117l tapsime viena spar\u010diausiai senstan\u010di\u0173 Europos gyventoj\u0173 grupi\u0173.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"
Senatv\u0117s nepritekliaus indeksas<\/strong> (\u0161altinis: Eurostatas<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

D\u0117l ma\u017eo gimstamumo laipsni\u0161kai did\u0117s gyventoj\u0173 sen\u0117jimas<\/h2>\n\n

Demografiniai poky\u010diai Europos \u0161alyse yra pernelyg skirtingi, kad b\u016bt\u0173 galima vieningai prognozuoti produktyvumo augim\u0105 visoje Europoje. N\u0117ra n\u0117 vienos \u0161alies, kurioje b\u016bt\u0173 tik teigiama tendencija, ta\u010diau kai kurie tendencijos vertinimai yra matomi. Demografiniu po\u017ei\u016briu laim\u0117tojos yra \u0161iauriau esan\u010dios \u0161alys, taip pat Vokietija, kurioje per ateinant\u012f de\u0161imtmet\u012f padid\u0117s 30-49 met\u0173 am\u017eiaus \u017emoni\u0173 dalis. Pana\u0161ios tendencijos tur\u0117t\u0173 vyrauti Danijoje, Belgijoje, Nyderlanduose ir Jungtin\u0117je Karalyst\u0117je. Darbo na\u0161umo augimas Vidurio ir Ryt\u0173 Europoje gali baigtis ir d\u0117l to, kad ma\u017e\u0117ja 30-49 met\u0173 am\u017eiaus darbuotoj\u0173 skai\u010dius d\u0117l j\u0173 nuolatin\u0117s migracijos \u012f Vakarus. Tai ypa\u010d pajus \u010cekija ir Vengrija. Slovakija tur\u0117t\u0173 nukent\u0117ti ma\u017eiau, ta\u010diau kit\u0105 de\u0161imtmet\u012f darbuotoj\u0173 ma\u017e\u0117s taip pat. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
30-49 met\u0173 am\u017eiaus darbuotoj\u0173 dalies augimas\/ma\u017e\u0117jimas<\/strong> (\u0161altinis: Eulerhermes<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

Nepalankias prognozes gali lemti kelios prie\u017eastys. Gimstamumas Slovakijoje yra ma\u017eesnis nei Vakar\u0173 ir \u0160iaur\u0117s Europos \u0161alyse. Moterys daugiau siekia karjeros, ma\u017eiau tuokiasi ir daug\u0117ja skyryb\u0173. Prie to reikia prid\u0117ti ir naujus bendro gyvenimo modelius, tarp kuri\u0173 yra ir vieni\u0161\u0173 t\u0117v\u0173 ar homoseksual\u0173 s\u0105jungos. Daug jaun\u0173 \u017emoni\u0173 i\u0161vyksta \u012f turtingesnes \u0161alis, ie\u0161kodami geresnio i\u0161silavinimo ir karjeros. Paradoksalu, kad esame gana u\u017edari imigrantams i\u0161 kit\u0173 \u0161ali\u0173 ir tikriausiai nesame jiems itin patraukl\u016bs. Taigi mes nesame vienintel\u0117 valstyb\u0117, kuri susiduria su sunkumais arba. bus sunku kovoti su \u017emoni\u0173 netektimi.<\/p>\n\n

„Nat\u016bralus nykimas Europoje yra daug da\u017enesnis nei JAV d\u0117l vyresnio am\u017eiaus gyventoj\u0173, ma\u017eesnio gimstamumo ir ma\u017eesnio vaisingo am\u017eiaus moter\u0173 skai\u010diaus. Nat\u016bralus gyventoj\u0173 skai\u010diaus ma\u017e\u0117jimas kelia didel\u012f politin\u012f susir\u016bpinim\u0105, nes jis ma\u017eina regiono demografin\u012f atsparum\u0105, ma\u017eina jo ekonomin\u012f gyvybingum\u0105 ir konkurencingum\u0105.” <\/p>

– demografas Dudley Postonas ir kolegos i\u0161 Teksaso A&M universiteto <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

Migracija kaip problemos sprendimas<\/h2>\n\n

Jei visuomen\u0117 sen\u0117s, ma\u017e\u0117s darbo viet\u0173 ir daug\u0117s pensinink\u0173. Taip pat gali susidaryti situacija, kai gyventoj\u0173 skai\u010dius did\u0117ja, ta\u010diau ekonominis lygis nesudaro s\u0105lyg\u0173 gyventi patenkinamai. Ta\u010diau u\u017esienio darbuotojai gal\u0117t\u0173 pad\u0117ti ekonomikai augti. Jos yra lanks\u010dios ir nukreiptos \u012f tuos profesinius sektorius, kuriuose labiausiai tr\u016bksta darbo j\u0117gos. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
Geriausia demografin\u0117s kreiv\u0117s diagrama<\/strong> (\u0161altinis: Jungtin\u0117s Tautos<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

„Europos S\u0105jungos \u0161alyse, kuriose remiama \u0161eimos politika ir darbo bei \u0161eimos gyvenimo derinimas, gimstamumas yra didesnis. Imigracija svariai prisideda prie \u012fvairaus lygio aktyvi\u0173 gyventoj\u0173 atnaujinimo ir stiprinimo.”<\/p>

– sociologas Fran\u00e7ois H\u00e9ran <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

M\u016bs\u0173 po\u017ei\u016briu, sien\u0173 atv\u0117rimas tre\u010diosioms \u0161alims yra vienas i\u0161 b\u016bd\u0173 i\u0161vengti demografin\u0117s kriz\u0117s. Jei gimstamumo, migracijos ar mirtingumo rodikliai labai nepadid\u0117s, spaudimas pensij\u0173 sistemai spar\u010diai did\u0117s. Migracija gali b\u016bti pagrindin\u0117 s\u0105lyga siekiant i\u0161vengti gyventoj\u0173 sen\u0117jimo ir darbo j\u0117gos ma\u017e\u0117jimo. Tai nekelt\u0173 pavojaus, kad beveik vis\u0173 Europos S\u0105jungos \u0161ali\u0173 pensij\u0173 sistemos bus pernelyg apkrautos. Teigiam\u0105 poveik\u012f pajusime tik tada, jei visuomen\u0117 sugeb\u0117s valdyti ir integruoti migracij\u0105.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Viena i\u0161 rim\u010diausi\u0173, ta\u010diau ne taip populiariai sprend\u017eiam\u0173 \u0161i\u0173 laik\u0173 problem\u0173 yra visuomen\u0117s sen\u0117jimas. Europos S\u0105jungoje gimstamumo rodikliai yra problemi\u0161ki, o tai ver\u010dia susim\u0105styti apie darbo j\u0117gos ateit\u012f ne tik m\u016bs\u0173 \u0161alyje.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":23647,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[256,257,258],"tags":[],"acf":{"facebookpost":"","popis_socialneho_obrazku":""},"yoast_head":"\nAr demografin\u0117 kreiv\u0117 turi \u012ftakos darbo j\u0117gai? - At\u0117n\u0173 tinklara\u0161tis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Artimiausiais de\u0161imtme\u010diais numatoma gyventoj\u0173 am\u017eiaus strukt\u016bros raida tur\u0117s didel\u012f poveik\u012f visuomenei. 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