{"id":8032,"date":"2019-11-13T08:01:25","date_gmt":"2019-11-13T07:01:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/?p=8032"},"modified":"2019-12-17T09:02:56","modified_gmt":"2019-12-17T08:02:56","slug":"ovplyvnuje-demograficka-krivka-pracovny-personal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atena.sk\/blog\/ovplyvnuje-demograficka-krivka-pracovny-personal\/","title":{"rendered":"Ovplyv\u0148uje demografick\u00e1 krivka pracovn\u00fd person\u00e1l?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jedn\u00fdm z najv\u00e1\u017enej\u0161\u00edch, no napriek tomu nie a\u017e tak popul\u00e1rne rie\u0161en\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov s\u00fa\u010dasnosti je starn\u00faca popul\u00e1cia. V r\u00e1mci Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanie s\u00fa zaznamen\u00e1van\u00e9 problematick\u00e9 ukazovatele oh\u013eadom p\u00f4rodnosti, \u010do vyvol\u00e1va \u00favahu o bud\u00facnosti pracovnej sily nielen na\u0161ej krajiny. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Hoci sa Eur\u00f3pska \u00fania roz\u0161iruje o nov\u00e9 \u010dlensk\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty a bohatstvo jej ob\u010danov narast\u00e1, mus\u00ed s t\u00fdmto probl\u00e9mom z\u00e1pasi\u0165. St\u00e1le menej a menej naroden\u00fdch det\u00ed ohrozuje pracovn\u00fd trh, syst\u00e9m zdravotnej starostlivosti a d\u00f4chodkov\u00fd syst\u00e9m. Demografick\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy varuj\u00fa, \u017ee eur\u00f3pska popul\u00e1cia pomaly vymiera. Prieskumy z\u00e1rove\u0148 dokazuj\u00fa, \u017ee Eur\u00f3pania by priv\u00edtali viac potomkov. Av\u0161ak len za predpokladu, \u017ee na to ekonomicky bud\u00fa sta\u010di\u0165.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Budeme svedkami demografickej kr\u00edzy?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Je ve\u013ek\u00fdm predpokladom, \u017ee v bl\u00ed\u017eiacich sa desa\u0165ro\u010diach budeme svedkami bezprecedentnej demografickej kr\u00edzy. V d\u00f4sledku n\u00edzkej p\u00f4rodnosti, odchodu mlad\u00fdch \u013eud\u00ed do zahrani\u010dia, predl\u017euj\u00facej sa d\u013a\u017eky do\u017eitia a uzavretosti vo\u010di cudzincom sa m\u00f4\u017eeme sta\u0165 jednou z najviac zostarnut\u00fdch spolo\u010dnost\u00ed v Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanii. Starnutie obyvate\u013estva je samozrejme trend, ktor\u00fd postihuje v\u0161etky vyspel\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty sveta, nie je to teda iba n\u00e1\u0161 probl\u00e9m. Pokia\u013e ide o demografick\u00e9 predpovede, z\u00e1padn\u00e1 a severn\u00e1 Eur\u00f3pa je na tom cite\u013ene lep\u0161ie ne\u017e krajiny ju\u017enej a v\u00fdchodnej Eur\u00f3py. Rie\u0161enie demografickej kr\u00edzy by tak malo zah\u0155\u0148a\u0165 opatrenia v oblasti hospod\u00e1rstva, zamestnanosti aj rodiny. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
PREDPOKLADAN\u00dd V\u00ddVOJ PO\u010cTU OBYVATE\u013dOV<\/strong> (zdroj: Eurostat<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

K\u00fdm krajiny ako N\u00f3rsko, D\u00e1nsko a \u00cdrsko bud\u00fa popula\u010dne r\u00e1s\u0165, F\u00ednsko si udr\u017e\u00ed zhruba stabiln\u00fd po\u010det obyvate\u013eov. Slovensko \u010dak\u00e1 po roku 2030 postupn\u00e9 vymieranie a z\u00e1rove\u0148 razantnej\u0161ie starnutie obyvate\u013estva ne\u017e krajiny z\u00e1padnej a severnej Eur\u00f3py. Dnes e\u0161te patr\u00edme medzi vekovo najmlad\u0161ie eur\u00f3pske n\u00e1rody, starneme v\u0161ak r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie ne\u017e in\u00ed. Do roku 2060 by sme u\u017e mali patri\u0165 medzi najviac zostarnut\u00e9 n\u00e1rody v Eur\u00f3pe. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee bude omnoho \u0165a\u017e\u0161ie udr\u017ea\u0165 financovanie zdravotn\u00edctva a d\u00f4chodkov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu. Starnutie tak nebude prebieha\u0165 postupne, ale ve\u013emi dynamicky. N\u00e1sledkom toho sa staneme jednou z najr\u00fdchlej\u0161ie starn\u00facich popul\u00e1ci\u00ed v Eur\u00f3pe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
INDEX STAROBNEJ Z\u00c1VISLOSTI<\/strong> (zdroj: Eurostat<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Efekt n\u00edzkej miery p\u00f4rodnosti postupne posiln\u00ed starnutie obyvate\u013estva<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Demografick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj v eur\u00f3pskych krajin\u00e1ch je pr\u00edli\u0161 rozdielny, aby umo\u017enil jednu predikciu rastu produktivity v celej Eur\u00f3pe. Neexistuje \u017eiadna krajina, ktor\u00e1 by bola len na pozit\u00edvnej strane, ale niektor\u00e9 odhady trendu s\u00fa vidie\u0165. Demografick\u00fdmi \u201ev\u00ed\u0165azmi\u201c s\u00fa severnej\u0161ie krajiny, ale aj Nemecko, kde sa bude podiel 30-49 ro\u010dn\u00fdch \u013eud\u00ed v nasleduj\u00facej dek\u00e1de zvy\u0161ova\u0165. Podobn\u00fd trend m\u00e1 nasta\u0165 v D\u00e1nsku, Belgicku, Holandsku a Spojenom kr\u00e1\u013eovstve. N\u00e1rast produktivity pr\u00e1ce v strednej a v\u00fdchodnej Eur\u00f3pe sa m\u00f4\u017ee skon\u010di\u0165 aj v\u010faka poklesu po\u010dtu zamestnancov vo veku 30-49 rokov kv\u00f4li ich prebiehaj\u00facej migr\u00e1cii na z\u00e1pad. Poc\u00edtia to hlavne \u010cesk\u00e1 republika a Ma\u010farsko. Slovensko by malo by\u0165 zasiahnut\u00e9 menej, ale v nasleduj\u00facej dek\u00e1de sa rovnako prejav\u00ed pokles pracovn\u00edkov.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
RAST\/POKLES PODIELU PRACOVN\u00cdKOV VO VEKU 30 – 49 rokov<\/strong> (zdroj: Eulerhermes<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

D\u00f4vodov pre nepriazniv\u00e9 predpovede m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 nieko\u013eko. Miera p\u00f4rodnosti je na Slovensku ni\u017e\u0161ia ne\u017e v krajin\u00e1ch z\u00e1padnej a severnej Eur\u00f3py. \u017deny sa viac venuj\u00fa svojej kari\u00e9re, uzatv\u00e1ra sa menej man\u017eelstiev a rastie po\u010det rozvodov. K tomu je potrebn\u00e9 prida\u0165 aj nov\u00e9 vzory spolu\u017eitia, ku ktor\u00fdm rad\u00edme slobodn\u00fdch rodi\u010dov alebo homosexu\u00e1lne zv\u00e4zky. Mnoho mlad\u00fdch \u013eud\u00ed odch\u00e1dza do bohat\u0161\u00edch kraj\u00edn za lep\u0161\u00edm vzdelan\u00edm a kari\u00e9rnym uplatnen\u00edm. Paradoxom zost\u00e1va, \u017ee vo\u010di imigrantom z in\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tov sme sk\u00f4r uzavret\u00ed a zrejme pre nich ani nie sme obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 atrakt\u00edvni. Nie sme teda jedin\u00fdm \u0161t\u00e1tom, ktor\u00fd z\u00e1pas\u00ed, resp. bude z\u00e1pasi\u0165 s \u00fabytkom \u013eud\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

„Prirodzen\u00fd \u00fabytok je v Eur\u00f3pe omnoho \u010dastej\u0161\u00ed ako v USA z d\u00f4vodu star\u0161ej popul\u00e1cie, ni\u017e\u0161ej p\u00f4rodnosti a men\u0161ieho po\u010dtu \u017eien v plodnom veku. Prirodzen\u00fd \u00fabytok je hlavnou politickou obavou, preto\u017ee z regi\u00f3nu vys\u00e1va demografick\u00fa odolnos\u0165, zni\u017euje jeho ekonomick\u00fa \u017eivotaschopnos\u0165 a konkurencieschopnos\u0165.\u201c <\/p>

– demograf Dudley Poston s kolegami z Texas A&M University <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Migr\u00e1cia ako rie\u0161enie probl\u00e9mu<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ak popul\u00e1cia bude starn\u00fa\u0165, vznikne tak menej pracovn\u00fdch aktiv\u00edt a viac \u013eud\u00ed na d\u00f4chodku. M\u00f4\u017ee tie\u017e nasta\u0165 aj situ\u00e1cia, kedy popul\u00e1cia bude narasta\u0165, no ekonomick\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 nebude vytv\u00e1ra\u0165 podmienky na uspokojiv\u00fd \u017eivot. Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed pracuj\u00faci by v\u0161ak mohli dopom\u00f4c\u0165 rastu ekonomiky. S\u00fa flexibiln\u00ed a id\u00fa do t\u00fdch sektorov povolan\u00ed, kde je najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed nedostatok pracovnej sily. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
NAJIDE\u00c1LNEJ\u0160\u00cd GRAF DEMOGRAFICKEJ KRIVKY<\/strong> (zdroj: Organiz\u00e1cia Spojen\u00fdch n\u00e1rodov<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

“ Krajiny Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanie podporuj\u00face rodinn\u00fa politiku a zladenie pracovn\u00e9ho a rodinn\u00e9ho \u017eivota, maj\u00fa vy\u0161\u0161iu mieru p\u00f4rodnosti. Imigr\u00e1cia poskytuje zna\u010dn\u00fd pr\u00edspevok k obnoveniu a posilneniu akt\u00edvneho obyvate\u013estva na r\u00f4znych \u00farovniach odbornosti.“<\/p>

– sociol\u00f3g Fran\u00e7ois H\u00e9ran <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Z n\u00e1\u0161ho poh\u013eadu je otvorenie hran\u00edc tret\u00edm krajin\u00e1m jednou z mo\u017enost\u00ed ako zamedzi\u0165 demografickej kr\u00edze. Pokia\u013e sa z\u00e1sadne nezv\u00fd\u0161i p\u00f4rodnos\u0165, migr\u00e1cia \u010di \u00famrtnos\u0165, tlak na penzijn\u00fd syst\u00e9m sa bude r\u00fdchlo stup\u0148ova\u0165. Migr\u00e1cia m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 k\u013e\u00fa\u010dovou podmienkou pre zamedzenie starnutia popul\u00e1cie a \u00fabytku pracovnej sily. Nehrozilo by tak pre\u0165a\u017eenie penzijn\u00fdch syst\u00e9mov v takmer v\u0161etk\u00fdch krajin\u00e1ch Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanie. Pozit\u00edvnych dopadov sa do\u010dk\u00e1me len vtedy, ke\u010f bude spolo\u010dnos\u0165 schopn\u00e1 migr\u00e1ciu riadi\u0165 a sceli\u0165.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jedn\u00fdm z najv\u00e1\u017enej\u0161\u00edch, no napriek tomu nie a\u017e tak popul\u00e1rne rie\u0161en\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov s\u00fa\u010dasnosti je starn\u00faca popul\u00e1cia. V r\u00e1mci Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanie s\u00fa zaznamen\u00e1van\u00e9 problematick\u00e9 ukazovatele oh\u013eadom p\u00f4rodnosti, \u010do vyvol\u00e1va \u00favahu o bud\u00facnosti pracovnej sily nielen na\u0161ej krajiny. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":8057,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[54,76,77],"tags":[],"acf":{"facebookpost":"","popis_socialneho_obrazku":""},"yoast_head":"\nOvplyv\u0148uje demografick\u00e1 krivka pracovn\u00fd person\u00e1l? - Atena blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Spolo\u010densk\u00e9 dopady o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja vekovej \u0161trukt\u00fary obyvate\u013estva bud\u00fa v najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch desa\u0165ro\u010diach z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9. 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